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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.
The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.
“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”
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“MGM offers a more diversified investment case, with BetMGM, regional gaming and Las Vegas operations reducing reliance on online sports betting alone,” says Beynon. Robinson makes the same point. “It is a Las Vegas and Macau property business with a betting JV attached, and that is precisely why it has held up.”
Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.
The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.
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Meanwhile its B2C revenue, which took a significant hit last year as it offloaded the majority of its B2C operations, including Snaitech and Happy Bet, declined 22% to €32 million.
This segment is predominantly made up of Sun Bingo in the UK, a white label brand which Playtech said it was reviewing in March, due to the impact of the UK Remote Gaming Duty hike earlier this year.
Regarding further investment into the company, it said high-growth verticals like live casino were receiving targeted capital deployment, while in terms of geography, the Americas remained a core focal point for the company. It expects to reach profitability in the US this year.
